The Art of Clear Thinking

hasard lee.

the art of clear thinking.

a stealth fighter pilot's timeless rules for making tough decisions.

in the dynamic, high-stakes world of air force fighter jets, split-second decisions can mean the difference between life and death.

no one knows this more than f-16 and f-35 pilot hasard lee.

while we're unlikely to ever find ourselves flying a supersonic aircraft, charged with saving or destroying a top-priority target, we will find ourselves needing to make complex choices—often without all the information we'd like, in less time than is ideal, and under more pressure than we'd desire.

but the reality is that in our rapidly changing world, the ability to make good decisions is becoming increasingly crucial.

it will be those who can think clearly and critically who will thrive.

out of necessity, fighter pilots have remained on the cutting edge of decision-making theory and training.

this makes sense, as while raw talent certainly helps, superior judgment is what ultimately separates those who survive on the front lines of combat and those who don't.

after decades of iteration, the air force has defined a simple decision-making model called the ace helix, which instructs fighter pilots to first assess, then choose, and then execute.

the model's helix design exists to remind us of the second and third-order effects many of our decisions have, and the importance of keeping this understanding front of mind.

so in this chapter, we'll break down the ace helix framework and prompt you to consider how you would employ the underlying principles in your own life.

whether you're literally saving the day in a war zone, or metaphorically but no less meaningfully, saving the day at home or in the office, remembering to assess, choose, and execute will invariably ensure better outcomes for all.

assess.

stand-ups were a daily ritual when lee was a student pilot in air force training.

every morning, a trainee would be randomly selected to stand in the center of the classroom, be given a theoretical emergency by their instructor, and asked to talk through how they'd handle it.

performance in this daunting exercise was closely recorded and played a role in assigning students to aircraft upon graduation.

as you might imagine, stand-ups weren't particularly popular among student pilots, but they were powerful teaching tools, so much so that the sentence they were required to start with, i will maintain aircraft control and then analyze the situation, has stuck with lee throughout his career as a fighter pilot.

this gets to the heart of the first step of problem-solving, making an accurate assessment of the situation.

this is the first step to solving any problem.

lee and his peers may have been using this principle for decisions to be made in the air, but unbiased assessment is just as critical for decisions to be made in our homes or workplaces.

sure, it's not uncommon to want to jump into action as soon as a problem arises, but rushing to act without gathering all available data and developing an approximate mental model can be detrimental to the final outcome.

in the high-stakes world of fighter jets, pilots have died from rashly skipping this step.

in practice, analyzing a situation, although crucial, doesn't need to be some flashy exercise.

in fact, a great place to start is simply taking a breath between the stimulus and your response.

after learning to overcome the impulse to act immediately, student pilots are then taught to engage their senses and quickly consider each piece of information one by one.

has the cockpit increased or decreased in temperature?

where in the aircraft is that rattling sound coming from?

does that smell indicate the presence of fire or ozone?

each mini-assessment may only take a couple of seconds, but it's an investment that breeds much-needed clarity and perspective and, in the fighter pilot's context, may well save lives.

we're cognitively predisposed to want to solve problems as fast as possible to hammer them away as soon as they pop up.

yet, as the ace helix model recognizes, many of the decisions we encounter in today's world are dynamic and have second- and third-order effects.

as a result, taking a moment to pause, collect data, and form a working mental model is a moment disproportionately well-spent, whether you're navigating a supersonic jet, a disagreement with your significant other, or an unexpected setback to a group project at work.

choose harwan province, afghanistan.

2 a.m.

lee and his wingman, callsign shark, were returning to the bagram air base after a five-hour airstrike against a taliban control center.

landing at bagram was a challenge on a good day, but tonight it would be even more so.

the primary runway was closed, meaning they'd have to land on the shorter, narrower backup runway.

ordinarily, this would be an inconvenience, but otherwise manageable.

however, lee and shark were carrying more weight back than expected.

bombs left over from the mission, meaning their approach would be much faster than usual.

this left them with a very small margin for error.

as the pair prepared for landing, orange tendrils suddenly rose up before them.

it took lee several seconds to realize that bagram was under attack.

in fighter pilot training, trainees are introduced to a decision-making technique, fast forecasting, to help them choose a plan of action once they've analyzed the situation and built a working mental model.

the core idea behind this technique is to estimate the expected value of options by weighing the potential upsides and downsides based on their probabilities.

however, since real-world problems are frequently complex with uncertain probabilities, precision is often impossible to attain.

so fast forecasting makes approximations from which the best, although often imperfect, solution can be selected.

lee and shark took inventory.

they were both running low on fuel, and with the towering afghan mountains around them, didn't have a safe place to land.

essentially, they had two options.

land on the compromised runway with the remaining fuel, or eject from their planes away from the base before their aircraft went down.

using fast forecasting, calculating approximated probabilities, lee estimated a 97% chance of survival if they went with plan a. plan b, ejecting from their planes, seemed to offer a higher chance of survival.

however, it also carried the significant risk of injury, and even possible capture by surrounding enemy forces.

all in all, lee's mental calculations took about 15 seconds, and that's all he allowed himself.

yes, he'd likely made several erroneous assumptions, but burning fuel while bemoaning their predicament would mean certain death.

lee radioed shark and told him they'd be going with plan a. thankfully, they survived to tell the tale.

lee and shark's experience is obviously extreme, but it's one that points to a truth applicable to more everyday personal or professional decisions.

we're rarely presented with perfect solutions to problems.

if we were, decision-making wouldn't be the intricate, multifaceted exercise it is.

we humans have an innate instinct for weighing risk and reward, and this is a strength we should lean into when choosing a plan of action.

we can further leverage this skill set, and therefore maximize the chance of the most favorable outcome, by approximating probabilities and calculating expected value.

remember, delaying or avoiding making a choice is a choice, too.

even a small, guesstimated chance of success is more desirable than definitely going down.

execute bagram air base, afghanistan, november 12, 2016 time was of the essence as lee climbed aboard the f-16.

just hours before, the bagram air base had been attacked by a suicide bomber, and several u.s. personnel had lost their lives.

a squadron was needed in the air immediately to help prevent the further assaults expected.

as lee spurred the jet's engine into life, he noticed something large moving at speed out of the corner of his eye.

as his eyes adjusted to the low light of the cold evening, he realized it was a fuel truck, but not a u.s. one.

vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, or ieds, posed the greatest threat to american forces during the war in afghanistan, so much that individuals didn't even need superior approval to take one out.

lee was in an unenviable position.

the fuel truck hurtling at him could be carrying up to 40,000 pounds of fuel, and he was strapped into a jet loaded with bombs and missiles.

should he proceed with takeoff, moving toward the unidentified truck, or should he abort and try to neutralize the oncoming vehicle?

prioritizing and decisively executing is paramount when making difficult decisions under pressure.

in such times, what's known as the eisenhower matrix can be a great aid.

the matrix can be visualized as a graph, with a task's urgency on the horizontal axis, and a task's importance on the vertical axis, thereby offering four quadrants in which a task can fall.

the idea is that when we need to prioritize, we should first focus on the things that are both urgent and important.

for lee, this was quickly deciding to go ahead with his mission despite the fuel truck barreling toward him.

with the critical taken care of, we then turn our attention to the essential—the things that aren't urgent but are still important.

in lee's case, this was completing his aircraft's crosscheck.

next, we want to delegate tasks that fall into the urgent but unimportant quadrant as far as possible.

in the situation at the bagram air base, this saw lee radio for backup to secure the potential ied.

finally, we want to cut all non-urgent, non-important tasks completely.

at the time of this thwarted attack in 2016, nobody could—nor should—be distracted by anything else.

thriving in your personal and professional life necessitates mastering prioritization and execution.

all too often, fear of making the wrong move holds us back.

so to counter this, the air force encourages its pilots to heed the mantra, there's no problem so bad, you can't make it worse.

perfect certainty is rare.

but we can maximize the chances of a better outcome by eliminating the distractions, delegating the interruptions, and taking resolute action on the essential and critical.

hopefully, however, in far less life-or-death circumstances than the scenario lee encountered.

in this chapter, to the art of clear thinking by hazard lee, you've learned that the capacity to make accurate and efficient decisions is one of the highest leveraged skills in today's world.

as society continues to advance at an unprecedented pace, those who think clearly and critically have a disproportionate advantage.

while few of us will ever find ourselves in lee's position, strapped into the cockpit of a fighter jet tasked with a high-stakes mission, we'll all face our fair share of complex decisions in our personal and professional lives.

and, like fighter pilots, we can increase our chances of making the best moves using the ace helix framework.

so, in whatever way you're making the world a better place, remember, assess, choose, and execute.

thanks so much for listening.

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